1: What is the challenge of having fewer young people and more older people?
The prospect of having more older citizens and fewer young people in the decades ahead means that there will be fewer people of working age to fund and maintain the welfare system, while demand for healthcare services will continue to rise. This is due to the fact that in Denmark we are generally living longer and having fewer children.We are also already facing workforce shortages in the healthcare system and in care services more broadly. Altogether, there are several things that point in the same direction and call for attention.
2: What can we learn from the demographic shifts in the past?
We can learn that it’s nothing new that demographic changes cause concern. As early as the 18th century, the economist Thomas Robert Malthus pointed out that the food supply could not keep up with the growing population, which would lead to overpopulation and famine.Later on, fears of running out of fossil fuels were replaced by concerns about climate and environmental problems in line with the rapid growth of the population. Today, we are seeing declining birth rates in Denmark and globally, with the exception of southern Africa, where fertility rates remain high.
History shows that concerns about demographic change are not new, and that they have often played an important role in helping society find solutions and adapt to new conditions.
Concern is not necessarily a sign that something is going wrong, but that we are becoming aware of the challenges and can therefore do something about them, for example, through political reform, technological development and new ways of organising society.
- Fertility
The total fertility rate is currently around 1.5 children per woman and has been below replacement level since the late 1960s. In 1950, the fertility rate was 2.6 children per woman. Cohort fertility - the total number of children women from the same cohort have - is around 1.9 children for women born between 1950 and 1980, showing that part of the decline is due to women having children later in life. - Life expectancy
Life expectancy has increased significantly since 1950. Women today live for just over 86 years and men around 83 years. - Age composition
The overall dependency ratio is around 57 per 100 people of working age. The composition has changed significantly: In the past, children were in the majority, whereas today it is mainly people over 65 years old. The number of older people is growing faster than the workforce, and the ratio of older people to those in the workforce is expected to rise from around 32 today to around 45 in 2050.
3: What forms of adaptation have historically been most important during demographic shifts?
Innovation has been - and continues to be - of great importance when we have faced demographic fluctuations. However, innovation must be understood in a broad sense. It’s not only about new technology and new machines, but also about new ways of thinking and organising society and the labour market.An early example is the agricultural sector, in which technological and organisational innovations have led to us being able to produce far more with far fewer hands than before. Consequently, whereas hunger has historically been one of the biggest challenges, today we have a global overproduction of food.
Similarly, during periods of labour shortage, several countries have adapted by bringing in workers from abroad, such as when Denmark welcomed guest workers in the 1960s and early 1970s who contributed to the expanding industrial sector.
The point is that society has found different solutions depending on the period, the political context and the technological possibilities available.
4: How can we tackle the demographic challenges we are facing?
Politicians have implemented comprehensive pension reforms to ensure financial sustainability as the number of older people is increasing and as more people are living longer. However, we still face challenges that need to be addressed in the short and long term.In the short term, it’s all’about addressing labour shortages in the health and care sector. One way to do this is to attract more people to health and social care education programmes and create a good framework for those already employed in the sector.
It is also crucial to utilise the full potential of the workforce, for example, by motivating more older people to work longer, ensuring a better match between skills and jobs and a continued commitment to reform.
In the longer term, technology and innovation play a key role. New technologies and artificial intelligence can help solve parts of the labour shortage - both by streamlining workflows and changing the way we work in a number of sectors.
This applies, for example, to the healthcare sector, where digital consultations and better diagnostics can ease the staff’s workload, and also to the industrial sector, public administration and service professions, where automation and new working methods can increase productivity.
This can also spark fears that some jobs will disappear while others emerge or change form. That is why investments in education and upskilling are part of the response to the demographic challenges.
In other words, several courses of action are available, and tackling demographic challenges requires an interplay between politics, technology and society’s other institutions.
5: What is the core takeaway when discussing the current demographic development?
The key point is that while demographic challenges are neither new nor insurmountable, they won’t solve themselves either.History shows that societies can adapt to large population changes, but only when they are willing to make clear choices and combine multiple solutions at once.
This also applies today. We can’t expect technology, fertility or migration alone to ease the pressure. Adaptation requires political vigour, a willingness to reform and an honest debate about priorities. This is where societies have historically proven to be most resilient.
Join the event ’Fewer young people, more older people: On the brink of the abyss?’, where we bring together researchers, politicians and stakeholders to focus on the demographic challenges we face. The event will take place on Thursday 12 March 2026 at Kunstmuseum Brandts in Odense and is organised by the Department of Economics at SDU in collaboration with the ROCKWOOL Foundation and VIVE.
Find more info and registration here
