What will technologies like AI and robots mean for the future of work?
It’s a question that pops up regularly, and many are eager to weigh in on it.But what do researchers, who actually work with robots and artificial intelligence, say about automation and how it affects the labour market?
Here’s what you need to know.
Robots are already here
The first thing they say is yes. Robots will take our jobs. In fact, they already have-on a large scale.Since the 1960s, industrial robots have entered factories, leading to increased production. But according to a 2020 MIT report, they’ve also replaced about 400,000 jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector.Even outside factories, automation has taken over many daily tasks-often without us realising it.
Although some might argue this is a broad definition of robots, Rehn’s argument is that robots - or machines, if you like - have gradually been taking over our jobs for a long time. It’s just less dramatic than in science fiction movies.
No need to panic
However, there’s no need for alarm, the researchers say. Robots will replace some jobs, but not all.Robots as colleagues
Rehn suggests that robots will often take over only the repetitive, labour-intensive tasks, acting more as tools or even colleagues rather than competitors.Norbert Krüger adds that future job opportunities will include both existing roles and entirely new ones. But many people might need reskilling or further education, so adaptability will be key.
Moreover, society might prevent the automisation of certain roles such as nurses and social care workers, where human interaction is essential. At least, so does the researchers hope.
It’s all’about the money
In Denmark, studies show that automation can create more jobs, increase wages, and generally make the country wealthier. For instance, a 2017 report by McKinsey and Aarhus University highlighted such benefits.But Dylan Cawthorne, a lecturer in drone technology and ethics, urges caution. He points out that this isn’t a guaranteed outcome everywhere, particularly in developing nations.
Self-checkout machines in supermarkets are but one example from our everyday lives, he says:
Cawthorne warns that, even though there might exist examples of the opposite, companies generally prioritise profitability over employee or consumer welfare. He mentions Amazon’s algorithm-driven system, where workers are constantly monitored and automatically fired if they fall short of performance targets.
Universal basic income?
And now that we’ve touched upon the darker future scenarios, we could turn to the American author Kurt Vonnegut’s 1952 novel ’Player Piano’. The novel depicts a world where robots handle most work, leaving the majority of people poor and jobless.Alf Rehn finds this scenario unlikely, as he believes people wouldn’t tolerate such inequality and would demand change. He’s optimistic that legislation and regulation will help distribute the wealth created by robots more fairly.
One proposed solution for the distribution of wealth in an increasingly automated economy is the idea of universal basic income. It involves giving all citizens a modest guaranteed income, without having to do anything, allowing them to choose whether to work, start a business, volunteer, or simply pursue personal interests.
AI: The wild card
However, all’of the researchers repeatedly stress that no one is able to predict the future with certainty. Technological development is notoriously hard to foresee.Krüger believes that AI systems like ChatGPT and similar technologies will soon disrupt society more than physical robots.
Dylan Cawthorne agrees:
As something rather novel, AI might also take over jobs traditionally held by highly educated professionals.
